Iraqi Debt, Iraqi Future: Possibly More Boring to Read Than It Was to Write

Just from some very shallow browsing/research into Iraq's odious debts, the thing I know for certain is that there seems to be little in the way of solid numbers or good precedent to cite. Princeton University economist Alan Krueger puts Iraq's total debt at a monumental $387 billion; The Coalition Provisional Authority, the IMF, and a London-based "emerging market debt specialist," Exotix, all point to figures somehwhere between $110 - 130 billion. (We all know about those shrill PU economists....) A bigger trick to the numbers is that the debt Iraq owes to Russia, Germany, and France—the debt that is so central for both the media and the administration—is a drop in the bucket compared to the money owed to Kuwait (and Saudi Arabia) for war reparations.

On reparations, the numbers are split even further: Even considering the war reparations, Exotix pegs the debts at no more than $160 billion. But Paul Bremer reportedly stated that the total debt, including the war reparations to Kuwait and Saudi, amounted to $200 billion—amounting to nearly $100 billion in war reparations, hardly a dime of it yet paid. Kuwaitis, by the way, are not taking kindly to this debt-forgiveness talk, even though they're not yet being courted by Mr. Baker. Paul Bremer responds to angry Kuwaitis by embarrassing himself:

Bremer said "it is curious to me to have a country whose (annual) per capita income GDP is about $800 ... pay reparations to countries whose per-capita GDP is a factor of 10 times that," for a war which all Iraqis now in power opposed.

A Kuwaiti parlimentarian strikes back with a proper booo-ya:

"If Bremer is so concerned about per capita income he has to demand dropping all of the United States of America debts on poor nations where per capita incomes don’t exceed $30 a year," MP Daifallah Buramiya told English language daily Arab Times.

Which brings us back to precedent. There isn't any—just further highlights the need for some sort of international bankruptcy court. In lieu of that, the United States will do with regards to Iraq's debt what it usually does, which is whatever it wants to. As Kevin Drum pointed out, the "Old Europe" set doesn't stand a chance of being repaid, so it's arguably in their best interest to forgive and forget. But Kuwait/Saudi Arabia are owed reparations, and a hell of a lot at that, and I wonder how likely those governments are to drop the issue. While I don't think that tackling Iraq with a bill in the hundreds of billions of dollars will work out any better than tackling Germany with tens of billions in debt did after WWI, the reparations are part of a UN settlement—not exactly enshrined in stone, but not exactly a bill with a dictator, either.

Iraq has already paid $7 billion (through the UN oil-for-food program) in reparations to a host of plaintiffs, and further claims amount to nearly $300 B (not all of them necessarily credible—this is, I imagine, where Krueger is getting his large numbers). Though it would seem that in the face of this staggering debt a compromise would be a laughable gesture, compromise figures are out there:

Based on a debt to export ratio of 225-250 percent, oil production of 2.5 million barrels per day and oil prices of $24.30 per barrel, [Exotix analyst Richard Segal] reckons Iraq could sustain debts of $51.5-$57.3 billion.

Sounds like a bottom line to me. And considering that the entirety of Iraq's debt was incurred by a man that the entire world doesn't hesitate to call evil, and won't hesitate to hang, it seems to me that a bottom line isn't too ridiculous a thing to ask of the global community.


No question, though—the US is going to get its money.
posted by kriston at 10:55 AM........

An Offer They Couldn't Refuse

Kevin Drum relates how France, in anticipation of the arrival of Bush family consigliere James "Funny Fingers" Baker III, has already agreed to forgive some portion of Iraq's odious debt.

One might even be inclined to say that France surrendered the debt.


Can't believe Kevin missed that one.
posted by kriston at 9:01 AM........

Monday, December 15, 2003

G.p Caption Contest

You make with the funny, you make out with a prize. I really don't know what kind of prize—probably something that I'm going to throw away—but it could be yours! Only one entry per person, unless your second entry is really fucking funny.



Contest ends at noon, Austin TX time, on Friday. No promises that I'll get the prize mailed out before Christmas, unless the winner's really funny. If you're really in a lurch for Christmas gifts, also try your hand over at Norbizness.


Be sure to leave an email address with your entry.
posted by kriston at 3:56 PM........

Someone Please Capture the District of Columbia

...before it drowns me. I have never seen so many holiday parties condensed into such a brief schedule, and so many lobbyists clamoring to ensure that the everyone is drunk on their dime. Please, DC—I have to be in good working order for my arrival in Austin on Saturday, so I can wash myself away in Trudy's margaritas and Crown & Anchor pitchers. This liver of mine is only mortal, and it has endured much.


If I actually attend all these parties, I'm going to be asking Santa for a transplant.
posted by kriston at 3:34 PM........

Someone Please Capture This Lady

I nearly forgot to advertise that today is "Write Like Nedra Pickler Day," hosted by Atrios. If you need a primer, try a Google News search—here are some headlines that may pop up:

• Democrats Press Bush Despite Capture
  
• Lieberman Uses Gore Snub to Help Campaign
  
• Dem. Front-Runner Dean Comes Under Attack
  
• Candidates Leaving Out Facts in Debate
  
• Dean's Rivals Ponder Gore Endorsement
  
• Dems Criticize Bush, Omit Facts Sometimes
  
• GOP Steals Win From Dems With Medicare

On page 4 of the search, you might see some headlines that don't seem to slander Democrats—but just read closely, the slander is there!

NOTE: I might not have made it abundantly clear, but those are the headlines as they appear in order. No sieve—that's all she's writing, and she doesn't work for Rupert Murdoch.


With objective reporters like these, who needs a Bush campaign?
posted by kriston at 12:43 PM........

Note the Lack of Substantive Post-Capture Insight

Did Saddam really think he could pull this off on a generation of US soldiers that was practically raised by Nintendo?



Dude, hiding in the warp zone isn't going to get you anything but screwed—you're better off taking on the Hammer Brothers. Courtesy of Yay Hooray. Next up: The post-Saddam world according to Fark.


Maybe Osama's stuck in the Negative Zone.
posted by kriston at 12:06 PM........

Sunday, December 14, 2003

Out of the Spider-Hole

Last night was some bender: Someone's birthday party prompted a visit to the single bar in DC that serves beer by the pitcher, and many pitchers were poured. This was preceded by a six-pack or so and followed by x rounds of Manhattans, where x = I have no idea.

It was around 4:30pm when I finally crawled out of my chamber today, meaning the sun was already setting—yet the light was still brain-shatteringly bright. I was happy to squintfully read that Saddam Hussein was captured at some point in the day I missed. Through the haze of what is probably the worst headache to ever clog my skull, the only thought I could assemble about the news was, man, that guy looks like I feel.


Probably more substantive posts on the subject to follow, once my system's alcohol-free.
posted by kriston at 7:03 PM........

! - ?

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